Egypt to become second largest by 2022
With a value of $480.5billion, the Nigerian economy retained its position as the biggest in Africa in 2021, latest data released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows. According to the data, the South African economy, with a value of $415.3 billion, occupies the second position followed by Egypt’s economy with a value of $396.3 billion, while Algeria’s economy came in fourth place with a value of $163.8 billion. With a value of $126 billion, Morocco’s economy is ranked fifth, followed by Kenya’s with $109.5 billion, Ethiopia with $92.8 billion; Ghana with $75.5billion; Angola with $70.3 billion and Tanzania with $69.2 billion. However, the data indicates that the IMF expects the Egyptian economy to be the second largest on the continent during 2022, with a value of $438.3billion.
The Fund, in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) released in December last year ranked Nigeria as the biggest economy in Africa and the 26th largest in the world, with Gross Domestic Production (GDP) of $442.976 billion in 2020. New Telegraph reports that Nigeria became Africa’s biggest economy in 2014 after the country “rebased” its GDP data, thus pushing it above South Africa as the continent’s biggest economy. With the inclusion of previously uncounted industries like telecoms, information technology, music, online sales, airlines, and film production, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Nigeria’s GDP at the time, totalled N80.3 trillion ($509.9bn) at the end of 2013, compared with South Africa’s GDP of $370.3 billion.
In its 2021 Article IV Mission statement on Nigeria released last month, the IMF projected that despite high oil prices, Nigeria’s fiscal deficit would widen in 2021 to 6.3 per cent of GDP. The IMF observed that there were significant downside risks to the near-term fiscal outlook from the ongoing COVID-19, weak security situation and spending pressures associated with the electoral cycle. According to the Fund, over the medium term, without bold revenue mobilisation efforts, fiscal deficits are projected to stay elevated above the pre-pandemic levels with public debt increasing to 43 per cent in 2026. It stated: “With the emergence of fuel subsidies and slow progress on revenue mobilisation, the fiscal outlook faces significant risks. Continued reliance on administrative measures to address persistent foreign exchange shortages is negatively impacting confidence.”
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